Assessing the commercial viability of an emerging wastewater treatment technology

The decision

Could microbial electrolysis cells become a commercially viable alternative to conventional wastewater treatment, and what would need to change before significant investment was justified?

The challenge

Despite thousands of published research papers, no commercially viable microbial electrolysis system had been developed. The key question was not simply whether the technology worked, but whether it could compete economically at commercial scale.

Approach

The assessment combined multiple sources of evidence to answer a single investment question.

• Evaluated the underlying engineering and scientific mechanism.
• Reviewed published literature and existing pilot systems.
• Developed techno-economic models linking engineering performance to commercial outcomes.
• Performed laboratory experimentation to validate key assumptions.
• Built predictive engineering models calibrated against experimental observations.
• Used sensitivity analysis to identify the variables that most affected commercial viability.

Key findings

The analysis concluded that commercial viability depended on a small number of critical variables rather than incremental improvements across every aspect of the technology.

The work identified:

• the cost-performance thresholds required for commercial competitiveness;
• the assumptions that dominated investment risk;
• where additional research would create the greatest value;
• and where further investment would have limited commercial impact.

Outcome

Rather than asking whether the technology worked, the assessment identified what would have to be true for the technology to become commercially viable, providing a structured basis for future research and investment decisions.